First things first, what is your definition of a crash? A 5-10% drop is NOT a crash. It’s called corrections. An excessive price rise is corrected. That’s called correction.
Crash is something where market drops by 30% or so (And a true stock picker would be more than happy to buy 30-40% discounted, cheaper stocks).
Since we’re clear on what a crash is, let’s see whether there’s a probability of market crashing from 22,000 to 15,400. (30% drop).
Looking at the data available till date, personally, I don’t think we’ll drop back to 15k. Anyway, anything is possible in stock market.
The fundamentals of Indian economy are strongest.
The political stability is the strongest of the past 15 years with the ruling party, BJP, expected to be coming again with majority seats.
The economy is robust & growing at a stellar pace.
The earnings of companies and individuals are up in recent past.
Further, multiple rates cuts are on the cards starting next 3-6 months onwards, leading to free flow of capital & increased liquidity usually leads to higher stock prices or at least arresting major price falls.
With all the right ingredients in place, I don’t think there’s going to be a crash (unless a black swan event hits).
Yes, there may be some price & time corrections. In time corrections, Nifty may hover around 22k levels for next couple of weeks & consolidate.
On price corrections, do you really think it’ll matter you whether Nifty goes to 21k or 20k when you’d be most likely sitting at Nifty 50,000 something around 2030 or at Nifty 1,00,000 by something around 2035?
