“There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen.”
I want you to remember this. Atleast for next 2-3 weeks…
I’m not here to scare you but caution you about what’s most likely to happen if Straight of Hormuz don’t open up (which I personally think will be closed until end of this month).
Right now there’s no oil shortage.
But starting April 20th or something, we might see start of the global domino effect.
The world is still getting oil. I mean the oil tanks which left before the war started.
They’re still on their way. And it’s estimated that the last batch of shipment to leave Straight of Hormuz before the war started will be reaching North America (NA) around April 15th.
Africa and majority of Europe already have got it.
Now they don’t have much.
Gradually, NA, Europe, Africa & China will be out their competing for oil.
The bids will start increasing. Most bids outbidding the predecessor.
And then (it’s most likely) that oil prices might rip off! Something around $150-$200/brl.
There is no supply from Iran since past 35 odd days. And the demand will outpace the global supply.
The IEA has already released the reserves (larger than all previous 5 times cumulatively released).
The oil rigs in US are not anywhere close to pump oil for demand about to come.
All this might lead to a melt up in oil prices.
And once oil starts to boil things might get out of control. Supply chain disruptions. Sky rocketing inflation. Probable global recession. Civil war & riots.
I don’t want to go much into details.
But I’m just letting you know. Such scenario is possible…
