The Indian markets doesn’t seems to be much serious about the Middle East War going right now.
Just fyi, the South Korean market was circuit down 12% day before yesterday (even though it had to do with leveraged US ETF restrictions),
Thailand market got circuit down at 8%.
Our market on the contrary is much stable. A good as well as a bit scary situation at the same time.
Let me tell you, 16 countries are at war right now. 16 together. I think highest till date in my investing journey. And I’ve been tracking markets since nearly 2 decades now…
When these many countries are fighting, chances of things getting worse is much higher. Simple game of probabilities and basic math.
And that’s the scary part.
Too many variables. Too many moving pieces.
One wrong move and things blow up beyond proportion & anyone’s control.
Now does this means I sell everything and go away? No. I personally won’t. I’m invested with long horizon in market.
Will things get ugly? They probably can.
We might see a shocker in case things escalate further. Things can get really bad…
But I’ll be extremely cautious.
I think market is yet pricing in the middle east crisis.
Until then I’ll hold on to each of my investments with patience.
Is this end of the world? Most probably, not.
Will markets rise to yet another record high? Most probably, yes.
Once this war ends (which I think may last for few weeks and not days), things will cool off.
Until then, I’m cautioning you that it’s a bumpy ride ahead with crude inching towards $100 and probably towards $150/barrel too.
$150/barrel is not a good case scenario for India.
Petrol Diesel prices may spike from ₹100 to ₹130/litre.
Inflation may pick up. Rate cuts may get stopped.
Brace for increased volatility.
Don’t panic.
Fingers are crossed.
